At the beginning of August 2010, we used our model of the S&P 500 to make three predictions of where stock prices would go during the month. We predicted: The level the S&P 500 would average in the early part of the month (1123-1175).The average level of stock prices to which the S&P 500 would go next (1074-1127).The change in the year-over-year growth rate of stock prices that woul
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Money managers are always looking for an advantage to help them better understand the market and get an edge in their stock selection process. The Applied Finance Group's (AFG’s) Market Forecast Project (MFP) has served that purpose for over 300 investment professionals that participate, and it continues to grow. In our 11th issue of the MFP we have identified the favorite long and
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At the request of one of our readers, and with the UK Budget announcement tomorrow, we thought today was as good a day as any to do a piece on the UK's credit rating.A popular view, at least until the UK election, was that the UK would get downgraded, as its budget deficit of 11% rivaled that of Greece. It was also hypothesized that the cost of bailing out the financial system would lead to
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A bubble is an extremely dynamic market phenomenon that has its own set of behavioral characteristics rooted in the human psyche. Emotions such as hope and euphoria drive prices to absurd highs, and then fear and despair drive them to extreme lows after the bubble has imploded. The equilibrium between supply and demand that exists in a normally functioning marketplace becomes equally distorted,
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Economics of Contempt argues that statutes that put a ban on proprietary trading at banks and bank holding companies must leave considerable discretionary power to regulators, attempts to be more specific end up creating more loopholes than they close: Merkley-Levin Is a Joke, by Economics of Contempt: The Merkley-Levin Amendment (SA 3931) is a version of the Volcker Rule. The Volcker R
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Express (EXPR), a limited Brands' specialty retailer targeting young men and women, plans to raise $304 million by offering 16,000,000 at a price range of $18.00 to $20.00. At the mid-point of the proposed range, Express will command a market value of $1,685.98 million. Express, which was founded in 1980, booked $1,721 million in sales over the last 12 months. The Columbus, OH-based company plans
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Publishing my weekly newsletter on Sunday should offer some clear advantages. Normally, the weekend provides time for both inspection and preparation. Allowing the markets to settle, we can examine the week that was, analyze key events scheduled to occur over coming days, and create a strategy independent of the market's noise. Now is not a normal time. Following a brutal week in which the Dow J
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More than half the cities in the Case–Shiller 20-city composite index saw year-over-year declines in house prices for the Dec/Jan/Feb time period. This news identifies further weakness in housing markets, indicating that, even with government supports, home prices are not sustainable. During the Dec/Jan/Feb timeframe, home prices declined in 19 of the 20 cities in the 20-city composite. The
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Interesting take on things.. It's about time someone told it like it...Obviously, the web doesn't account for the Roosevelt years. I do agree...The so-called Clinton economy hinged on the invention of the world-wide...10Q detective is one of the best....Good info....That would indicate the financial sector still has a major downside...I would hazard a guess that people are buying online rather than driving...Could this really be the bottom for the financials?...
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